An age old debate in sporting circles is how would the stars of past eras go in today's competition, whether it's Don Bradman in a skill based sport like cricket, or Emil Zatopek in an endurance sport like running. Would they have risen to where the performance bar is now, or just be consigned as "also rans" amogst the hordes in each sport? It makes for great bar room debate.The history of triathlon is becoming long enough that we are able to have the same debates, about the likes of the "Big Four" at their peak in the 80's - plus Mike Pigg, Erin Baker, etc - through to the stars of the 90's - Spencer Smith, Simon Lessing, Paula Newby Fraser and Emma Carney to name a few - and the recent crop of athletes who shape our current performance expectations. The one thing we have as a tangible measuring stick is race times over defined distances and courses…even though there is such variability in courses and conditions around the world, and over the years.
So, where are the performance trends heading in triathlons and what effect are tactics having on race results, and the times posted? You could write a thesis on this topic, but I'm going to try keeping this a bit briefer!!
An obvious place to start is with IM Hawaii, on a course that has been largely the same for nearly 30 years (apart from changes in T2 location). The men's 15 year old race record was broken last year, which even allowing for variable conditions in that period, is a very long time, especially in a young sport like triathlon which has benefitted from many technical advances designed to improve performance. The women's race record was broken a couple of years earlier after standing for a similar period of time.
Were the athletes of the 90's really that good (ignoring any suspicions about some of those performances)?...or conversly, has there been such little improvement in standard?? Perhaps athletes from the 90's were over achievers at IM racing, even though the status and prestige - and competitiveness - of a Kona title has increased exponentially since then, which often drives performance standards. There have fast conditions at Kona several times in the last decade - '06, '11 (at least) - and even the other years didn't stop Chrissie Wellington from breaking the women's record, so you could say the argument about conditions affecting performances is a moot point.
Many will say that changes in tactics have affected IM performance times and that the bike leg, in particular, is much more of a cat and mouse affair with the race being won on the run. This is a fair argument as it seems in past eras there was perhaps a little more of a purist, time-trail approach to racing, and with a smaller number of pros in contention, breaking away was "easier" to do compared to now, where the bike leg draws comparisons to aspects of bike racing (albeit without the bunch sprint finish!). The women's race does still bear some resemblance to the "old days", so perhaps it is the size of the respective pro fields that has the most bearing on race tactics, and subsequently race times. This would also account for the smaller gaps in the men's field in Hawaii, at least, whereas record breaking performances generally tend to see one person way off the front.
Away from Hawaii there are few IM courses that are unchanged over the last 20+ years to allow comparison of times. An exception came in 2011 where in the space of a month the Challenge Roth record and IM World Record* were smashed. These were clearly outstanding performances and featured a solo performance in each case, which is the same way Chrissie has gone about each of her many record breaking results. An * is needed to denote unverified courses, which is a blemish against many IM events.
So I think we could say that in IM racing the depth of competition - more so in the men's field, at present - has impacted the way the races are run and won, and the subsequent times being posted, with many results from the 90's still being very respectible - and even fast - by today's standards. It often takes someone like a Chrissie Wellington to motivate a general shift upwards of performances, which we are seeing more consistently in the women's ranks, in races that are more break away performances rather than featuring head-to-head tactics.
Moving to shorter events, and IM 70.3 for a moment, the performance trend here is a clear upwards with race records being broken on a regular basis. However, there is even more variability in courses for these events, there is no clear "world record" time to compare to, and the relatively recent creation of the "IM 70.3" brand has seen an explosion in the number of these races that are contested, so in some ways these events are a newer phenomonon and are still establishing a baseline standard for comparison.
ITU racing has perhaps seen the most dramatic improvement in performance in recent years, although this is hard to quanity in the same way as long course. Scott Molina, who won countless short-course races in his career in the 80's, had a track PB 10,000 of 30:xx min, and although he raced in a non-drafting era that is now the time the top-10 are running off the bike in World Triathlon Series races. Even looking to the Olympic debut of triathlon in 2000, the winning run time was about 31:00 min…a time that might get top-20 these days. In the women's side, the last 3-4 years, in particular, has seen a dramatic improvement in run times…although women like Emma Carney set a high standard in the 90's.
ITU racing is also seeing a real change in the dynamic of how races unfold, where it is no longer simply a matter of keeping in the swim pack, tucking in during the ride and running fast…the last 2-3 years has evolved into being a swim race, bike race and run race in the same event, where any weakness is exposed and athletes spat out. The standard required is amazing, no more clearly illustrated by the attempt of Macca, 1997 ITU World Champion, to comeback and finding the scene very different to when he left it. Only a small number of notably athletes have been able to move with the changes, to literally re-invent themselves in order to keep up, let alone be competitive. Refer to Simon Whitfield as example.
The progression of performances varies between the different styles of triathlon, and while times tell a black-and-white story of how things have changed, it is only part of the story and it would be a hard argument to say that today's triathletes are not an evolutionary leap beyond the performances of their fore fathers…although there are some exceptions, of athletes who were ahead of their time and who's age old performances would still shake things up these days.
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