Talent identification (TID) in triathlon is a tricky thing - do you develop all-round athletes from a young age, or "cherry pick" more mature athletes with promise? Regardless, it takes athletes with great talent to really succeed in triathlons, not just because they need to be able to swim, ride and run fast, but also handle the necessary volume of training and submit to being under the control of your national federation. Life as an elite triathlete in hard work and all-consuming.
The use of TID has mostly been for the development of ITU athletes, and is most often done via national federations whose tentacles spread far into the community pool of potential candidates. Once they are identified they will usually be sucked into the vortex of programs, systems and more, with the goal of turning the potential into reality. Some succeed, some get burned out and some get disillusioned. Then some others 'graduate' from ITU racing, which is what this article is about.
In long course and IM racing TID doesn't exist in the same sense as in ITU because LC and IM racing sits outside of national federations core business for which it is funded, despite the fact that many members focus solely on this format. So the TID that does occur stems from smaller enclaves of coaching groups, or "teams", or through the individual determination of athletes - you're pretty much on your own in the LC and IM world. The upside is the freedom of choice in terms of training, racing, sponsorships and more, where many of these pro triathletes earn more through sponsorship than prize money. There is arguably more earning potential in LC and IM racing for the majority of athletes.
So where do you look in seeking out the next stars of LC and IM racing? It's too demanding and the time frame for development is too long to be scouring junior ranks to train them up. Trying to "cherry pick" mature athletes perhaps from a single-sport background is fraught with uncertainty. The best age group athletes may make a successful leap to elite, but they would be few and far between, and usually only with modest success. So where do LC and IM stars come from?
The simple answer is from 'graduates' of ITU racing, or younger ITU athletes who realise they are on the fringe of success and see LC and IM racing as a more fertile ground. Specifically, in the 1-3 years after the London Olympics I am sure there will be a flood of ITU athletes crossing over to LC and IM racing - some have already indicated as much, such a Brad Kahlefeldt and Simon Whitfield. Methinks that the current crop of LC and IM athletes should be very afraid!!!
History has already seen the success that good ITU (or short course) athletes have had in LC/IM racing. Mark Allen and Scott Molina are prime examples, as are Erin Baker and Karen Smyers. Moving the timeline forward a little there is Simon Lessing, Michelle Jones and in current racing Chris McCormack, Rasmus Henning, Mirinda Carfrae, and the list goes on. All these athletes experienced success at shorter events before doing the same in longer ones.
The fact these folks did well does not mean every good ITU athlete will do likewise at the longer version. Some are simply not inclined, others do not have the aptitude, or it could be their physiology means that LC/IM racing is simply a bridge too far. But for every athlete who finds that LC/IM is not to their liking, there will be one who does, who posses the talent and grounding in ITU racing to be able to successfully transfer it to LC/IM. It might take them a year or two - or maybe more - to learn and adapt, but once they do, the performance bar will be lifted markedly.
An influx of aggressive ITU athletes could also see changed tactics - just image what the Brownlee brothers would do to a field once the gun went??
So while the LC/IM races for 2012 - and to extent 2013 - will feature many of the names we are familiar with, I think that predicting the winner of Hawaii in 2014 and/or 2015 will very likely include an ITU athlete who raced in the London Olympics. The next interesting question is who will it be, on men's and women's sides?
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